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◆ UK bank uses the first issuance window after earnings, central bank meetings and holidays ◆ Deal coincides with busy euro credit market ◆ Barclays attracts attention with relevant new issue concession
◆ Dutch bank goes 'head to head' with Alphabet in euros ◆ Brings its longest ever opco tranche ◆ Book skewed towards two year FRN
◆ French issuer tightens spread by impressive 8bp ◆ CFF's fourth covered bond in past two months ◆ Spread of 51bp was flat to fair value, says banker
Data
Banks could rush to issue as fast as possible, taking advantage of remarkably tight spreads
Growing pipeline and fiercer competition had threatened to shake the darling bonds of May
Uncertainty in Middle East peace negotiations may reignite alarm, but investors remain willing as long as issuers pay to play
Tweaks to trading book rules will be next stage of competition
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Germany will remain one of biggest covered bond issuance regions, accounting for up to a fifth of European supply next year. The residential real estate market and economy are expected to remain resilient and, along with robust investor protection built into Pfandbriefe, the market is well buttressed — even when it comes to riskier commercial real estate exposures. -
Singapore could prove to be a rich seam of covered bond issuance next year, with bankers suggesting analysts’ expectations are far too pessimistic. Conversely, Australian issuance may prove to be disappointing. Meanwhile, potential new legal developments in Japan and Malaysia will provide a key focus of attention.
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Covered bond supply from the Netherlands is expected to lead the Benelux region next year, where a total combined issuance of €9bn is due to surfac,e based on the average of six forecasts.
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Covered bond issuance from France is likely to be the highest from any country next year, reflecting the sheer size of the market, high redemptions and banks' propensity to use covered bonds for market funding rather than for repo funding at the central bank.
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Investor demand for higher yielding covered bonds from Central and Eastern Europe will likely outpace relatively moderate supply by a considerable amount. And with a wide range of debut issuers in a considerable number of new jurisdictions expected to surface, the outlook is very promising.
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Canadian issuers are expected to concentrate on building their regulatory buffers in 2021 mainly with dollar senior issuance with bankers suggesting that analysts’ covered bond supply forecasts for next year, which are considerably above €10bn, are overly optimistic.
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