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Analysts discuss the scope of tightening in Bund swap spreads and the impact on SSA spreads
OATs and OLOs could weaken further versus Bunds while southern European countries and EU continue to paint a positive picture
Uncertainty looms large as presidential race far from clear and budget negotiations potentially ‘highly challenging’
Summer in full swing but first two weeks of August not completely off the cards for non-euro deals
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Bankers are pointing to sovereigns from central Eastern Europe as the best hope for CEEMEA supply although much of the region is bound by the uncertainty of when the US will start to raise rates.
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Portugal attracted more than €5.5bn of demand for the first syndicated deal from a peripheral sovereign since mid-June on Wednesday.
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Poland made sure CEEMEA was not left out of the September restart rush on Wednesday, but more traditional emerging markets are likely to be left sidelined until after the US Federal Reserve decides to raise interest rates, said debt bankers.
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Portugal will become the first eurozone periphery sovereign to test the post-summer syndication market — but its choice of tenor has been limited by several weeks of turmoil in global markets.
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The UK Debt Management Office plans to reopen an ultra-long index-linker in the second half of September. The deal will be the sovereign’s third syndication of its financial year.
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The governments of Indonesia and Russia both signalled earlier this week that they are considering issuing renminbi denominated bonds. If the plans go ahead, these will be the third and fourth RMB deals from a foreign sovereign after the UK and Mongolia governments. However, FX volatility means now is not the best time to pull off a RMB deal.