Covered bond issuance from France is likely to be the highest from any country next year, reflecting the sheer size of the market, high redemptions and banks' propensity to use covered bonds for market funding rather than for repo funding at the central bank.

The European Union will introduce a law early next year to oblige member states to report on how they are spending Next Generation EU funds, to support the bloc’s plan to issue green bonds.

Public sector bond issuers surprised on the upside in 2020. In 2021, banks predict them to be big borrowers again — and they expect to make money from them. Twenty-six heads of debt capital markets in the EMEA market participated in Toby Fildes’ annual outlook survey. Only a few firms are expecting to have to cut jobs, but the UK will bear the brunt. On the eve of Brexit taking full effect, Paris, Frankfurt and Dublin look set to be the winning cities. Good news for all: 80% of banks see the last significant Covid restrictions being lifted by the second half of 2021.

Transition bonds are likely to play a prominent role in labelled debt markets in 2021, after the market produced long-awaited guidance in December. As Jon Hay reports, the new market is bound to provoke disagreement — but it will be a creative conflict.

Public sector borrowing has been the backbone of the global economy’s response to the unprecedented economic and humanitarian disaster of Covid-19. Sovereigns, supranationals, agencies and regions rose to the new challenge, displaying more ingenuity and ambition than ever in their selection of market, format, currency and tenor and producing some truly spectacular deals. Borrowers throughout the SSA class had to adjust their funding programmes after the first quarter — many to double or even treble their requirements. Contending with inflated funding needs, as well as a market beset by severe dislocations, required unusual flexibility and creativity. Amid all that, SSA borrowers managed not simply to raise the sums required, but to push forward market attitudes to SRI debt and to new risk-free-rates products.

The EU began its evolution in 2020 in becoming one of the largest issuers in the capital markets. While it was plain sailing for the first few deals, there are bigger tests ahead in 2021, with the EU’s borrowing set to balloon even further in size. Burhan Khadbai reports.

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