Issues

Amid the disruption caused by rising rates, buyers and sellers refused to agree prices for mergers and takeovers. That left banks fighting for scraps of deals and feeling the squeeze on pricing. But as Ana Fati reports, since the summer the mood has changed and loans bankers are feeling wanted again. 2024 holds promise, but no one expects an easy ride

After a disastrous 2022, hopes were sky high among banks, issuers and investors in the emerging markets that 2023 would mark a turnaround. Record breaking volumes were printed in the first month of the year — and then the first quarter — only for bullishness to fall away as US regional banks and then Credit Suisse threatened another global financial crisis. Conflict in Ukraine and Israel brought further worry. Wise issuers took windows when they appeared and played to their particular strengths rather than waited for the perfect moment.

If it is true that interest rates are near their peak, then hopes of a rebound in the IPO market after another dreadful year may be justified, writes Aidan Gregory. But it will be a while before a full normalisation

GlobalCapital asked the heads of debt capital markets at over 50 of the top bond houses where they saw threats and opportunities for 2024. Geopolitics are once again at the top of the worry list but so is retaining junior staff. Overall, however, Toby Fildes and Ralph Sinclair, discovered an optimistic tone, no doubt helped by the pervasive belief that interest rates are at or near their peak

A cash-heavy Islamic investor base starved of supply — compared to what conventional buyers were served up — helped Middle East and North Africa sukuk issuers secure bigger order books, giving them more pricing power than regional peers issuing regular bonds, writes George Collard

Central and eastern Europe sovereigns enjoyed big demand for benchmarks at the start of 2023 but paid high new issue premiums. This was reversed later in the year, as investors became more confident about the path of interest rates and when borrowers had less to raise. George Collard reports

If 2023 was a better year for CEEMEA bond issuers it is no great claim; 2022 was dreadful. But investors have gained a degree of comfort over the path of interest rates, giving hope — but not confidence — of a further rebound in the primary market in 2024, write Francesca Young and George Collard

The eclectic nature of US securitization left some sectors of the market flourishing and others floundering in 2023. Ayse Kelce, Kunyi Yang and Tom Lemmon look at which corners of the market have reason for cheer and whether there’s an expectation of a turnaround in sluggish or struggling sectors

Marathon runners fear the dreaded wall — the point near the end of a race where all energy and hope is drained. SSA issuers made it over the line with their funding in 2023 but there were signs of a flagging market in the final, hard yards, writes Georgie Lee

Sovereigns, supranational and agency issuers that could think a little differently stood out in 2023. As borrowers grappled with rates volatility, narrower issuance windows and yet no let-up in borrowing requirements, it was those that could be nimble or novel as well as those that laid down price markers for others that took the most plaudits

Europe’s corporate bond market kept working throughout a rough year of interest rate rises, despite some bashes along the way. As Mike Turner reports, investors now sense that rates have peaked and some are willing to take the risk of buying longer-term debt — but no one expects 2024 to be a smooth ride.

After a year of central bank tightening, corporate bond specialists are figuring out how ‘higher for longer’ will affect credit. As Mike Turner found in his survey, senior bankers and investors across Europe expect subdued volume, wider spreads, spots of credit anxiety — and then a new regime of economic stress and falling rates