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New EU deal and year's final sovereign syndications move into focus amid continued yield sell-offs
New label and attractive relative value of French agency paper allow large spread tightening
Issuer now 80% funded for the year, keeps eyes open for opportunities across currencies
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The total funding needs of the European Stability Mechanism and the European Financial Stability Facility is expected to drop next year. -
SSAs have had their best year in non-core issuance since 2012. SSA issuance (excluding euros, dollars and sterling) is up $3.83bn year on year to $82.95bn year to date. Much of this borrowing — some $32.8bn, according to Dealogic — has come through the MTN market.
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Italy is planning to issue its inaugural green bond in the second half of 2020, joining Germany and Sweden, who are also looking to sell their debut bonds in the format next year.
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Denmark’s government debt management office has formally proposed issuing green bonds in which the green element can be stripped off and traded separately — something that would be a world first, and would ask difficult questions of the green bond market. The DMO said investors had welcomed the idea.
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A major push towards fiscal easing in Europe, which could be a key driver of capital markets in 2020, looks more likely after the junior partner in Germany's governing coalition elected leaders who are calling for more public investment. Government debt in some other EU countries is already at record levels while demographic changes could push it higher.
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The Conservative Party’s lead in the opinion polls is giving rise to expectations that risk assets will rally, Gilts will sell off and primary markets will remain open after the UK general election on December 12. But a victory for Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour Party would cause panic.
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