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For the instrument to have a future, the process must be seen to have been fair

Removing post-crisis rules lays bare the financial system to risk

GlobalCapital’s Toby Fildes surveyed the heads of debt capital markets at 24 of the top 25 banks in the bond market in November, to ask their views on how the market will evolve in 2023. While there are some signs of optimism, their stance overall is wary. The Russia-Ukraine war is still regarded as the biggest source of danger, but China-Taiwan has shot up the agenda. Information design Jon Hay, Antony Parselle

The UK makes nice to securitization, EU remains stern — Does a burst of block trades signal recovery in equity capital markets? — Bond market begins to separate oil transition leaders from laggards — Four reporters pick the highlight of the year

Without ultralow rates, more EM companies will shy away from international bonds

Context and market conditions are always important when considering the merits of any new issue, but this was particularly the case in 2022, given how volatile markets were. Every CEEMEA issuer had to pay a high all-in price to get their deal away, and new issue premiums varied between issuers. EM issuers faced the toughest conditions in many years during 2022. The Russian invasion pushed investors to flee from riskier assets. The war had practical effects too: disruption to energy and food supplies sent inflation soaring and the resulting interest rate rises meant borrowing costs jumped sharply for CEEMEA issuers. New issue volumes dropped from 2021, particularly among CEEMEA corporates. By George Collard and Oliver West.

It was a year of two halves, as bond market dynamics fundamentally changed after quantitative tightening began. These corporate deals are outstanding for either pushing limits and taking advantage of conditions at the start of 2022, or for navigating some of the toughest markets in over a decade.

As the world came out of the coronavirus pandemic, bond market conditions in 2022 did the opposite of what was expected of them and sharply deteriorated. Rising inflation, in part a result of the war in Ukraine, supply bottlenecks and fast tightening central banks all hurt banks’ abilities to access stable funding in international markets. Accessing unsecured primary financing, even senior debt, was no mean feat as new issue premiums moved higher for most of the year on top of skyrocketing spreads. Refinancing subordinated bonds at economic levels was far more challenging amid extreme volatility that brought back memories of the 2008 global financial crisis. Four bellwether deals are recognised this year for their market-leading achievements and successful execution that empowered the rest of the FIG market in Europe. They not only re-opened market access to a broader issuer base but also gave much needed confidence boost to battered investors. By Atanas Dinov and Frank Jackman.

Issuing bonds became a lot harder for every type of borrower in 2022 — and sovereigns, supranationals and agencies were no exception. After a long spell of issuing into a market buttressed by central bank bond buying and rock bottom interest rates, all of a sudden the capital markets became a less certain place as interest rates and yields rocketed in response to a host of macroeconomic and geopolitical shocks from soaring inflation to the effects of the invasion of Ukraine. No longer did any deal work at any time, as had been the case, and the art of syndication was back. Execution for some could no longer be guaranteed as the number of pulled deals mounted but, despite this, there were a number of standout trades that helped to haul this group of borrowers through their funding tasks for the year by either re-opening markets in volatile times or by showing ingenuity and pragmatism to get funding done. By Addison Gong and Ralph Sinclair.

By redeeming its AT1 bond early, UBS has gained a handy advantage over its local and international competition

New ideas in the capital markets this year have come from an unlikely source: emerging market governments

GlobalCapital reveals the top deals, banks, investors and advisers voted for by the market. Winners to be revealed in February