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Navigating the covered bond market will not be without its challenges in 2020. The Targeted Longer Term Refinancing Operation (TLTRO), European Central Bank deposit tiering and the Covered Bond Purchase Programme have collectively distorted the market, but added to this concoction is the impact of negative interest rates. Against this backdrop issuers, investors and investment bankers gathered in Munich in November to discuss the outlook for covered bonds. It is likely that new issue premiums will gradually tighten, but the path is unlikely to be smooth. January is typically the busiest month, but in 2019, issuers that funded this early paid the highest spreads. And, with the ECB expected to buy in the region of €4.5bn covered bonds a month, issuers will not feel compelled to move early. But the ECB monetary policy has unwelcome implications. Covered bonds have begun to lose value against government bonds, and this will extend if the ECB is unable to loosen restrictions on government bond purchases.

The US and China’s signing of the phase one agreement on trade this week will finally put almost two years of battling and tit-for-tat tariff retaliation behind the countries. However, while the truce may pave the way for more market stability and a boost in investor sentiment, it spells trouble for the Chinese offshore loan market.

Gradually over the past decade, Asian investors have become more and more important to European corporate private debt markets, to the point where they are now often indispensable. Asian borrowers have been slower to appear, but are now arriving. However, while these arrivals have largely benefited these markets, they have introduced a few complications.

An unusual note of optimism defines the attitude of Europe’s public sector issuers as they approach 2020. While many other markets are beset by fears of a slowdown in global growth, trade wars, and Brexit, SSA borrowers are confident in their borrowing strategies and loyal investor bases. Despite a change of face in the ECB’s top job, rates are still set to remain low for the foreseeable future. Accordingly, investors are having to grit their teeth to stomach the scanty yields on offer for euro SSA assets. Although SSAs are offering little in the way of yield, their place as pioneers of the evolving SRI market always ensures lively debate. In this roundtable, held in early November, market participants on both the buyside and the sell side favoured a more holistic assessment of issuers’ ESG profiles, rather than relying on labelled assets, but whether or not the ECB should take a role in promoting the SRI market through “green QE” divided the group.

In this round-up, the Chinese Ministry of Finance (MoF) transferred 10% of its shares in three large commercial banks to the state-owned social security fund, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange is set to welcome a new chairman and the US treasury secretary has denied rumours of inaccurate translation of the phase one trade deal.

In this round-up, Chinese vice premier Liu He will visit Washington DC next Monday until Wednesday, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange sends its deputy administrator to Guangdong and the Financial Stability and Development Committee reaffirmed the importance of small and medium-sized enterprises.

In this round-up, China’s December consumer price index inflation flattened, Anhui-based Huishang Bank is considering taking over 15% of Baoshang Bank and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China is set to sell Rmb80bn ($11.5bn) of offshore perpetual bonds and onshore tier two bonds this year.

The sustainability-linked loan market is a glorious mess.

GlobalCapital is delighted to announce the nominees for this year’s Americas Derivatives awards.

The poll is open for GlobalCapital’s Equity Capital Markets Awards for 2019 and we invite market participants to have their say on the best performers of last year. The results will be announced at our fifth annual ECM Awards Dinner on Wednesday, March 18 in London — so please save the date.

I love a good story about the days gone by. I remember when liquid lunches were not just accepted but encouraged. My best ideas often came after downing martinis over a long lunch. But a recent story from Australia makes my wild days of boozy work meals look quite tame.

Asia’s debt and equity markets made a roaring start to 2020, with dollar bonds flooding the market and companies lining up for IPOs. But the first few days of the new year have also shown that issuers, capital markets bankers and investors should be prepared for some nasty surprises.