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CEE

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  • A European Union support package for Ukraine could add an extra €1.6bn to the issuer’s funding programme this year — but the form of the extra fund raising will be dependent on the pace at which Ukraine receives the funds. A benchmark deal, taps of existing trades or private placements could all form part of the issuer’s new plans.
  • Loans bankers pride themselves on taking a long term perspective. A lending relationship is for life, not just for an open deal window. So the crisis in the Ukraine has led to nothing more than a shrug of the shoulders and a declaration of business as usual in the loan market. This is a worrying sign.
  • Emerging markets are only for experts, as events in Ukraine and Russia showed this week. Big returns and big deals do not change that: they just make the stakes higher. This week, Lenta proved yet again that no matter how compelling the story, or well-liked the deal, investors should bear in mind that any apparently huge reward is always matched by commensurate risk.
  • The focus on Ukraine has moved from the macroeconomic to military sphere. But it is worth remembering that even if full scale conflict with Russia is averted, Ukraine’s economy is in an appalling state, and the bond market helped it end up there.
  • Promsyvazbank (PSB) postponed its tier two dollar bond on Monday because of growing tension between Russian and Ukraine, but the borrower has every intention of returning to market once conditions improve. The Republic of Azerbaijan, meanwhile, has pushed on with investor meetings although it will likely face higher spreads for its inaugural dollar sale unless the situation is resolved soon.