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Analysts discuss the scope of tightening in Bund swap spreads and the impact on SSA spreads
OATs and OLOs could weaken further versus Bunds while southern European countries and EU continue to paint a positive picture
Uncertainty looms large as presidential race far from clear and budget negotiations potentially ‘highly challenging’
Summer in full swing but first two weeks of August not completely off the cards for non-euro deals
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Ireland’s finance minister Michael Noonan has proposed refinancing part of Ireland's bailout loans from the International Monetary Fund, while keeping its less expensive borrowing from the European Union — a decision that contravenes the original terms of the programme. It is good news that Ireland is strong enough to even consider this option, but EU leaders should think of the precedent it sets before agreeing.
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The UK Debt Management Office raised its largest ever book for an inflation linked syndication on Tuesday when it opened a new 2058 line.
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Italy looks on course to auction 10 year debt in euros at its lowest ever yield on Wednesday, just a day after it broke its six month yield record. But with prime minister Matteo Renzi struggling to feed some of his latest reforms through his country’s treacly political system, the buy side might lose its appetite for BTPs, analysts warned on Tuesday.
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Ireland is seeking to reduce its near term redemption pile as part of its recovery process after coming off International Monetary Fund and European Union support last year, the country’s National Treasury Management Agency has said. It is also seeking to refinance some of its IMF loans early, but not its outstandings with the EU — a move that is likely to prove more tricky politically, said analysts.
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Italy, which on Monday hit a euro-era low on an auction of two year paper — the fifth time it has done so this year — can expect to enjoy further yield declines in the coming weeks, say analysts.
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There was a time a few years ago when many talking heads enjoyed saying “X is the new Greece”, leading periphery politicians to reply: “We are not Greece” and — presumably — people in Greece to think: “Hold on, aren’t we Greece?” Such comments are great for headline writers and reflect the real fear of a eurozone breakup in 2011 and 2012. But they can also prove tricky. Pimco, for one, may well be rueing the comments of its former boss Mohamed El-Erian.