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Analysts discuss the scope of tightening in Bund swap spreads and the impact on SSA spreads
OATs and OLOs could weaken further versus Bunds while southern European countries and EU continue to paint a positive picture
Uncertainty looms large as presidential race far from clear and budget negotiations potentially ‘highly challenging’
Summer in full swing but first two weeks of August not completely off the cards for non-euro deals
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Standard Bank — Bulgaria
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Although the eurozone sovereign debt market shrugged off a collapse in Greek bonds this week after the country brought presidential elections forward, other periphery countries could still see sell-offs around their own votes next year, bankers warned this week. -
Fears that the Ukraine may suffer a sovereign default have intensified after the IMF found the country needed an additional $15bn to avoid financial collapse. While the IMF and US may get the country through the current liquidity crisis, its longer term outlook is now very weak — with one research house putting the likelihood of its 2017 debt being rescheduled at 70%.
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The take-up of the European Central Bank’s Targeted Longer Term Refinancing Operation, widely seen as an indicator of whether the ECB will look to buy sovereign, supranational or agency paper in 2015, on Thursday was at the lower end of expectations — meaning that the ECB is more likely to expand its bond buying operations.
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An attempt by Indian regulators to develop a framework for municipal bond issuance has been welcomed as a step in the right direction to meet the country’s infrastructure needs. However, analysts warn that the any framework would do little to boost municipal bond usage in the short term.
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The Republic of the Philippines got a boost ahead of its expected return to the international debt market after Moody’s upgraded the sovereign’s rating by one notch to Baa2 from Baa3 on December 11.
