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The Brexit vote and the election of Donald Trump laid bare the poor predictive power of the massed ranks of financial analysts and traders. But when these political cataclysms hit the screens, nothing broke. Everyone from the IMF down to the lowest financial scribbler has warned that markets are less resilient thanks to regulation — but in the turmoil following these votes, prices moved but institutions stayed solid. Owen Sanderson reports.

Toby Fildes looks ahead to an even bumpier ride in 2017 when Fed rate rises might be the least of the global capital market’s worries.

GlobalCapital’s Toby Fildes interviewed the heads of debt capital markets at 20 of the top 25 banks in late November and December, to ask their views on how the market will evolve in 2017. Here are their thoughts. Information design Jon Hay, Sam Medway.

The land-grab for blue-chip accounts has been replaced by a more targeted approach as corporate brokers look to forge relationships that will be both long-term and highly remunerative. David Rothnie reports.

In a year where the unexpected became the norm, one of the few constants was the ECB’s presence in the eurozone sovereign bond market — you can see the monthly pace of Mario Draghi’s purchases. Elsewhere, the shock election of Donald Trump as US president and the Brexit vote took its toll on government bond yields and sterling’s level against the dollar.

Canada’s low debt to GDP ratio and stable politics have made it a haven in a turbulent era in global politics. But, with fears of a wave of protectionism growing, the trade-focused country faces problems ahead. However, with its fiscal stimulus programme an example to other nations wishing to promote growth, Canada’s borrowers are confident they can adapt and prosper in the new political reality. GlobalCapital hosted this roundtable in early December.

The creation of senior non-preferred debt in France means the country’s financial institutions can really start to build their loss-absorbing debt levels towards their requirements for total loss-absorbing capacity (TLAC) rules and Europe’s minimum requirement for own funds and eligible liabilities. But how much does each bank need to issue over the coming years? Since October 2014 the European Central Bank has been steadily buying more securities eligible for its covered bond purchase programme, helping issuers command much tighter pricing for new transactions. The resulting change in distribution by covered bond investor type has been stark. Real money investors — including asset managers and investors — have been squeezed out in the new pricing environment, while central banks have ramped up their purchases.

Europe’s bank recovery and resolution directive (BRRD) could face an important first test this month if Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena fails to complete its rescue plan. But market participants should not completely write off the new framework, even if the bail-in process does not pan out how they had hoped.

Suddenly infrastructure is the word on every Western politician’s lips. It has become an indispensable element of a re-election campaign, a weapon with which to fight back against populism and win over the hearts and minds of disgruntled electorates.

The Schuldschein market grew sharply in 2016, adopting issuers from new sectors and jurisdictions as well as first time arrangers and investors. The market is expected to maintain healthy volumes and international growth in 2017, though with investor capacity stretched to the limit, volumes are not expected to exceed the levels seen this year.

Few banks have been knocked about like RBS — or, since the beginning of the month, ‘NatWest Markets’. So for the beaten up British firm to be making statement hires again is a surprise indeed.

The holiday season kicked off at the Loan Syndicate Managers’ Forum’s carol concert in London last week and, as usual, Canon David Parrott delighted the crowd with another lively sermon — though one banker risked life and limb by questioning the quality of the drinks served at the Commerzbank reception...