Turkey

Moody’s took the axe to Turkey’s credit rating after market close on Friday, cutting the sovereign’s rating from Ba3 to B1 in a move that has raised hackles from some international investors.

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Turkish banks have completed the first refi season of the year and, despite ongoing geopolitical issues including concerns about Turkey's purchase of S400 missiles from Russia, spreads in the secondary loan market have stabilised at slightly wider levels.

Türkiye İş Bankası has closed its first semi-annual refi for this year, as the refinancing season for Turkish banks comes to an end.

Loan bankers are coming to the painful realisation that emerging markets borrowers will be increasingly drawn to the bond market this year. Conditions there are becoming ever more attractive, perpetuating a decline in global loan volumes. But those companies abandoning loans for bonds should bear in mind the advantages of the loans market, not least its resilience.

Garanti Bank has closed its loan refinancing at $783m-equivalent after receiving an orderbook of over $1bn. The borrower has welcomed 14 new lenders, as banks demonstrate their commitment to troubled Turkey.

Investors appear to be split over whether or not Turkey will follow through with its proposed purchase of a Russian S-400 missile system, in the face of likely sanctions from the US if it does.

Investors are clear that president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is once again to blame for another tumultuous week in Turkish assets. The country’s fate in the capital markets is in his hands. Investors have been quick to forgive in the past but their patience is not infinite.

The Turkish lira this week tumbled to levels it had not seen since last October’s economic crisis after Turkey’s electoral commission (YSK) annulled the results of Istanbul’s municipal elections that had been won by the opposition. Investors said they are concerned that economic reforms will be put on hold and are worried that higher interest rates will prolong the country’s recession.

Yapı Kredi Bank signed its spring loan refinancing on Thursday, having wrapped up the deal at $1.03bn. Bank of America Merrill Lynch and UniCredit are coordinators of the deal, which has 49 banks participating. The political uncertainty triggered by the decision to re-run the municipal elections in Istanbul has not dented international lenders’ appetite for financing Turkey’s banks.

Investors are aghast that Turkey’s national election board has cancelled the results of the Istanbul mayoral race, which the country's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s ruling party lost in March, and ordered a rerun. The country’s currency and CDS took a hit on Tuesday and is still reeling.

Turkey’s national election board has cancelled the results of the Istanbul mayoral race that president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s ruling party lost in March and ordered a rerun. This is widely thought of internationally as a blow to democracy, and in Istanbul citizens have taken to the streets in protest. But Erdoğan’s behaviour has been so unpredictable in the past year that there is hope the rerun in June will be free and fair enough for investors to breathe easy. It seems a bet made more in hope than expectation.