Turkey

Pegasus Airlines was seeking on Monday to issue a Eurobond in dollars. The deal will demonstrate market appetite for Turkish credit after the country navigated another economically tumultuous month, which saw investor confidence drop.

The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey on Thursday held its key interest rate at 19% despite fears that new governor and low interest rate champion Şahap Kavcıoğlu would cut rates. But despite the policy move, investor anxieties remain.

Turkey's central bank once again faces a critical rates decision this week. Any whiff of a cut in rates would be disastrous for the volatility-stricken country and its access to capital markets.

Turkish lender Akbank has managed to roll over a syndicated loan, which also marks its debut piece of ESG financing. However, pricing widened beyond expectations owing to heightened volatility in both domestic and international markets.

Market participants are bracing themselves for the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey’s monetary policy meeting next week, which they hope will result in interest rates being held. Though market access for the sovereign remains difficult, markets are showing some signs of stabilisation.

Confidence in Turkish assets hit fresh lows this week as investors struggled to digest a fresh wave of volatility after its central bank governor was sacked following an interest rate hike. With government and bank funding needs to be met in the international market, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey has a big job on its hands in regaining investor confidence — though some say the damage has already been done.

As emerging market IPOs continue to draw investors into countries many have never invested before, Turkey remains an obvious absentee. The country could be an EM equity giant but political decisions by its government continue to hinder Turkish businesses.

The shock sacking of Turkey’s third central bank governor in two years confirms to investors that the country lives in a world of its own — one in which central bank independence and fiscal prudence come second to the ideologies of the leader.

An imminent bond issue from Turkey is looking unlikely, investors say, after the abrupt sacking on Saturday of Naci Ağbal, governor of the central bank, just a day after he had raised interest rates by 200bp. Both hard and local currency bonds have sold off and market participants fear a balance of payments crisis.

A wave of central bank rate hikes across emerging markets over the last week, particularly in CEEMEA, has stimulated investor confidence amid a volatile period in global markets. The recent rise in US Treasury yields had threatened to pull money away from EM, with a further risk of weakening local currencies.

The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey has brought relief to emerging market investors by exceeding market participants’ expectations and delivering a 200bp rate hike.

Turkey's international bond market access is once again in question. Rising US Treasury yields have put affordable dollar funding beyond the sovereign for now, bankers believe, undoing the good done by a move back to orthodox monetary policy late last year, after months of inflation and a plunging lira. A rate hike next week may help restore issuance prospects, writes Mariam Meskin.