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'Dead quiet' few weeks will benefit issuers as excess bonds need absorption before issuance starts to ‘fire on all cylinders’ from August 17
Green investors buy when everyone else stops, giving issuers one last pricing lever — perhaps to cross a line none of them wants to reach
◆ Scaled-back bank treasuries snap up rare seven year floater ◆ Dollar FRN drought eases as World Bank extends curve ◆ Floater lands inside fixed rate funding levels
◆ New sterling five year lands after BoE Level B upgrade ◆ Dollar FRN 'snowball' as $2bn raised ◆ Callable issuance steady as zero structures cool
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Public sector agencies from the Nordic region are adapting to S&P Global Ratings’ overhaul of its rating methodology. So far, only KommuneKredit has been downgraded under the new rating criteria, but others could suffer similar fates. -
Public sector borrowers are confident going into the euro bond market next year, with reinvestments from maturing bonds held by the European Central Bank likely to cap any spread widening from the end of quantitative easing. But political threats — from populists polling well ahead of European Parliament elections in May, Brexit probably in March and the Italian government’s stand-off with the European Commission over its budget plans — are likely to bring volatility, meaning timing will perhaps be more important than in 2018. GlobalCapital brought together European SSAs, investors and investment bankers to discuss what 2019 holds for the euro market — as well as the SRI sector and new technology.
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The dollar SSA market at the end of 2018 was in stark contrast to euros, despite the latter outstripping it in volume over the year. Even uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s rate path in 2019 seems unlikely to shake the fortitude of the currency as a funding source for SSAs. But finding windows could become trickier as the Fed pulls liquidity amid global trade wars and rising populism.
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In the last year that sovereigns, supranationals and agencies could enjoy the effects of the European Central Bank’s quantitative easing programme — but still had to cope with the Fed pushing up rates — GlobalCapital’s SSA team used its editorial judgement, with inspiration from GC’s world-famous bond comments and patented BondMarker app, to pick what it felt were the top trades of the year. The team strove to find deals that were not just the biggest — it looked for trades that set pricing markers, were innovative and brave or that made an impression in other ways. GC presents the winners here. Congratulations to the issuers and banks involved.
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Work to bring the new risk-free rates to the dollar and sterling bond markets began in earnest this year as several issuers brought notes linked to them. But 2019 could be where clarity emerges on which of the different structures will win out.
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The bond market is well ahead of schedule in its adoption of potential Libor replacements, with several issuers having printed notes linked to the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (Sofr) in the dollar market, and to the Sterling Overnight Index Average (Sonia) in sterling. Borrowers are setting strong standards for other participants to take up, as well as adjusting structures to ensure the eventual market is optimal. That does not mean the job is finished, of course. GlobalCapital spoke to some of the pioneers in the Sonia and Sofr markets about their work so far — and the challenges ahead.
