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Analysts discuss the scope of tightening in Bund swap spreads and the impact on SSA spreads
OATs and OLOs could weaken further versus Bunds while southern European countries and EU continue to paint a positive picture
Uncertainty looms large as presidential race far from clear and budget negotiations potentially ‘highly challenging’
Summer in full swing but first two weeks of August not completely off the cards for non-euro deals
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Portugal is set to cash in on the runaway success of a debt exchange this week with a benchmark deal in the new year. The country’s success has forced bankers, many of whom were tipping it for further bailout assistance just a fortnight ago, to reassess their expectations for what the country can achieve in the capital markets. There were even more reasons to be cheerful about the Iberian peninsula as Spain sold debt at levels last seen when it was a triple-A rated credit with annual GDP growth of 3.6%.
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Cades may follow Bpifrance and Caisse des Dépôts et Consignations in bringing a deal next week after the two French agencies had contrasting responses when completing their 2013 funding programmes with euro deals on Tuesday.
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Spain sprinted over the finish line of its 2013 funding task in an auction on Thursday, raising more than €3.5bn and wiping 15bp from its five year funding costs. The sovereign has one more auction scheduled for this year, which could be used for 2014 prefunding.
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Strong bids across the credit curve, highlighted by Portugal’s ability to exchange €6.64bn of one to two year debt for longer dated paper, should provide a comfortable end of the year for issuers and a strong start to 2014.
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A Portuguese bond in the belly of the curve could be one of the first sovereign deals of next year, with the country that was tipped just weeks ago as a candidate for another bailout, likely to print before wrangles over its 2014 budget lead to investor jitters, bankers said on Wednesday.
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Montenegro is making a return to the bond market with a three year amortising euro deal, according to bankers away from the transaction.