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Analysts discuss the scope of tightening in Bund swap spreads and the impact on SSA spreads
OATs and OLOs could weaken further versus Bunds while southern European countries and EU continue to paint a positive picture
Uncertainty looms large as presidential race far from clear and budget negotiations potentially ‘highly challenging’
Summer in full swing but first two weeks of August not completely off the cards for non-euro deals
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Peripheral eurozone sovereigns, regions and agencies are gaining access to ever more diverse pools of liquidity — including conservative investors in long tenors — as yields hit historic lows and spreads scream in towards the core. But even more fuel could be added to the rocket powered rally, as growing tensions in Ukraine force investors to jettison emerging market debt and snap up the periphery’s paper. -
Read on to see how deals priced earlier in the year are faring in secondary. Trading levels given are bid-side spreads versus mid-swaps and/or an underlying benchmark as of Thursday's close. The source for secondary trading levels is Interactive Data.
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A remarkable start to the year for the eurozone periphery is in clear view in this month's sovereign funding scorecard. Just two months into the year, Portugal has completed more than half of its target, while Ireland is not far behind. At the other end of the volume spectrum, Spain is making good headway in tackling its €133.3bn target with 26% completed, while Italy — which has yet to sell a syndication this year — is behind on 18%.
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Claims that Greece could return to the debt capital markets in 2014 have taken on an extra air of authenticity after the sovereign’s 10 year yields dropped below 7% — the threshold above which many experts believe debt becomes unsustainable.
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Portugal relieved a little of its redemption pressures ahead of its expected exit from a bailout programme later this year, buying back €1.3bn of debt maturing over the next two years on Thursday. Meanwhile, Italy paid 2005 prices to open a new 10 year line and printed five year debt at a euro-era low yield, as the compression in peripheral eurozone spreads since new year showed no signs of slowing — and may even have received a boost from tensions in eastern Europe.
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The coming weeks represent an opportunity for sovereign, supranational and agency issuers to price aggressive deals as investors pockets bulge even after the traditional rush of issuance in the first few weeks of the year. Bankers in the sector are egging on issuers to bring deals to take advantage of the demand.
