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Analysts discuss the scope of tightening in Bund swap spreads and the impact on SSA spreads
OATs and OLOs could weaken further versus Bunds while southern European countries and EU continue to paint a positive picture
Uncertainty looms large as presidential race far from clear and budget negotiations potentially ‘highly challenging’
Summer in full swing but first two weeks of August not completely off the cards for non-euro deals
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A trio of rare dollar issuers took to the short end of the curve this week, supplying investors at a point that has been starved of new deals this year. The Kingdom of Denmark drew the strongest response, beating out even the Bank of England in terms of demand and pricing at the same level.
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Italy’s first syndicated inflation-linked bond in nearly three years this week could help Spain enter the linker market for the first time, SSA bankers said this week.
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Insurance and pension fund demand is likely to drive further 20 year benchmarks after this week’s triumphant €5bn syndication from Belgium, SSA bankers argued this week. New appetite for the rare maturity particularly reflects the Solvency II directive, under which insurers’ holdings will be assessed using mark-to-market values up to 20 years, writes Craig McGlashan. -
Italy’s next syndication could be a 15 year nominal bond after it auctioned the tenor at a euro era low on Thursday, SSA Markets can reveal. The sovereign’s funding target for the year could also shift after the country’s prime minister revealed a raft of tax cuts and labour reforms this week. Meanwhile, Ireland made a comfortable return to bond auctions on Thursday.
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The sovereign, supranational and agency supply line was fit to burst this week as a host of issuers lined up to pepper the curve with deals in euros and dollars. But such is the power of demand — with every deal priced on Monday and Tuesday at least comfortably oversubscribed and Wednesday’s business heading a similar way — more deals could be mandated before the week is out.
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Italy flew into a buoyant euro market with its first syndication of the year on Wednesday, raising €4.5bn with a doubly oversubscribed September 2024 inflation linked bond. But the sovereign has not finished business for the week — it auctions €6bn-€7.75bn of fixed rate bonds on Thursday.
