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Analysts discuss the scope of tightening in Bund swap spreads and the impact on SSA spreads
OATs and OLOs could weaken further versus Bunds while southern European countries and EU continue to paint a positive picture
Uncertainty looms large as presidential race far from clear and budget negotiations potentially ‘highly challenging’
Summer in full swing but first two weeks of August not completely off the cards for non-euro deals
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Kingdom of Sweden was able to price a five year euro benchmark at a level deeply through mid-swaps this week, as investors snapped up the rare opportunity to take on exposure to the sovereign despite the deal offering what leads say is the lowest coupon on a five year euro deal for a sovereign, supranational or agency all year.
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Italy took a radical approach to its latest BTP Italia in order to stop the bond reaching the epic size of its predecessors, but it failed to work. With a redemption profile that is starting to resemble the Dolomites, the sovereign needs to sharpen its funding tools further.
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Sweden was able to price a five year euro benchmark at the tight end of guidance on Thursday afternoon, after investors placed more than €2.5bn of orders.
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Spain stamped down its funding costs by 20bp-30bp as it slightly overshot its maximum €5.5bn target at an auction on Thursday. The drop in yields was evidence of a recent strong run for eurozone peripheral sovereigns’ debt, which some analysts believe is the result of investors’ expectation that the European Central Bank could soon start quantitative easing. Elsewhere, Italy kept yields near euro-era lows at an auction of two year zero coupon paper and outlined its auction business for next week.
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Portugal looked set to take another step towards full market access as its yields fell ahead of its first bond auction in three years on Wednesday. Meanwhile, SSA bankers prepared to wave goodbye to Network Rail, which will receive funding directly from the UK government from the next financial year.
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Portugal’s march back to full market access took on a swagger on Wednesday as the sovereign’s first bond auction in three years drew a healthy oversubscription — despite the February 2024 tap offering a yield well below the last tap of the paper just two months ago and at a level below where secondaries were trading.