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'Everyone is ready for summer to be over' as SSA wave builds for Monday
Analysts discuss the scope of tightening in Bund swap spreads and the impact on SSA spreads
OATs and OLOs could weaken further versus Bunds while southern European countries and EU continue to paint a positive picture
Uncertainty looms large as presidential race far from clear and budget negotiations potentially ‘highly challenging’
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Tuesday’s day of chaos that followed Italy’s inconclusive election provided ample evidence that the crisis in the single currency area is far from over. But with the surge in volatility having settled by the end of the week into a minor yield correction by recent standards, it was clear that headline shocks need no longer translate into crippled capital markets and a freeze in borrowing plans.
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Bank Nederlandse Gemeenten (BNG) sold a new Kangaroo bond on Wednesday, challenging investor nervousness about European borrowers. While the issuer started off by making concessions on its minimum targeted size, Japanese investors buoyed by a strengthening yen were keen to buy the paper.
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The UK Debt Management Office once again proved its safe haven status this week when it reopened a long dated inflation linked bond which, despite Moody’s downgrading the UK just days before and volatility across Europe’s debt markets because of the Italian election results, pulled in an impressive order book and was priced flat to secondaries.
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The European Financial Stability Facility was the only SSA borrower brave enough to issue in euros on Tuesday when markets were rocking from the Italian election results. Despite the volatility, there was enough demand for the agency to hit its size target and print a benchmark, though this did not stop whispers that it had been poorly advised.
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Two European borrowers on Thursday afternoon put to bed any concerns that a rudderless Italy might hit their dollar funding prospects. Council of Europe and Caisse des Dépôts et Consignations got impressive deals away ahead of rumoured dollar issues from Dutch agencies Bank Nederlandse Gemeenten and Nederlandse Waterschapsbank.