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'Everyone is ready for summer to be over' as SSA wave builds for Monday
Analysts discuss the scope of tightening in Bund swap spreads and the impact on SSA spreads
OATs and OLOs could weaken further versus Bunds while southern European countries and EU continue to paint a positive picture
Uncertainty looms large as presidential race far from clear and budget negotiations potentially ‘highly challenging’
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Portugal was set to pick up 10 year paper on Tuesday in its first new syndication since it received a bail-out in 2011. Heavy demand enabled the sovereign to set the size at its maximum target.
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Slovenia priced a blowout dual tranche dollar trade late on Thursday evening, weathering a downgrade from Moody’s that put the deal on ice earlier in the week. Pricing at the tight end of guidance, the bonds quickly traded upwards in cash terms — something that leads expect to continue with the deal reassuring investors that a bailout of Slovenia is now unlikely.
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Investors sided with the Republic of Slovenia against Moody’s this week, supporting a dual tranche dollar deal on Thursday at tighter prices than at a failed launch a couple of days earlier — just before a two-notch downgrade by the agency.
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Sovereign, supranational and agency bankers are urging their clients to take advantage of receptive market conditions as dealers’ lack of inventory starts to bite, sending spreads ever tighter and investors struggling to find assets in the secondary market. The supply shortage is expected to worsen as Japanese investor buying kicks in on the back of quantitative easing and a heavy redemption schedule sets in, in May and June.
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Mario Draghi, president of the European Central Bank, did not rule out further cuts to the central bank’s main refinancing rate at a press conference on Thursday. The ECB’s governing council cut the rate by 25bp to 0.5% ahead of the conference. Meanwhile, France enjoyed a strong bond auction on Thursday morning.
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Italy scored its lowest cost of medium to long term funding since October 2010 at an auction on Monday, as the appointment of a new government finally broke the country’s political deadlock.