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'Everyone is ready for summer to be over' as SSA wave builds for Monday
Analysts discuss the scope of tightening in Bund swap spreads and the impact on SSA spreads
OATs and OLOs could weaken further versus Bunds while southern European countries and EU continue to paint a positive picture
Uncertainty looms large as presidential race far from clear and budget negotiations potentially ‘highly challenging’
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Three borrowers are all contenders for summer benchmarks despite the volatility generated in the Portuguese government bond market this week following the resignation of two government ministers. The prospect of continuing supply after a volatile few weeks will come as encouraging news to market participants who in previous years have seen bad news on one peripheral eurozone sovereign shut down the entire SSA market.
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Latin America could underperform other developing regions in terms of its markets and economics for as much as two years, according to analysts.
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Nederlandse Waterschapsbank (NWB) and Luxembourg both squeezed in benchmark trades this week just in time before the resignation of government ministers in Portugal sent Portuguese OT yields on course for the moon and set other peripheral Eurozone government bond markets into sell-off.
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Portugal pushed peripheral Europe firmly back onto investors’ radars on Wednesday morning, as its 10 year bond yields soared to 8% following the resignation of two government ministers. The engorged yields and political tensions raised fears that Portugal may not have full market access when its bail-out programme ends in 2014, said analysts — and that could raise the twin spectres of a full European rescue being needed, and possibly a restructuring of privately held bonds as happened to Greek government debt in February, 2012.
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Spain could be set for a tricky test on Thursday when it becomes the first peripheral eurozone sovereign to sell debt since a political fallout in Portugal led to a selloff of southern European debt.
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Nigeria on Tuesday evening paid a 30bp-60bp concession to access the Eurobond market with a $1bn five and 10 year dual tranche deal. It gave some hope to other issuers that the CEEMEA primary market could be on the brink of a comeback after six weeks of low volumes.