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Analysts discuss the scope of tightening in Bund swap spreads and the impact on SSA spreads
OATs and OLOs could weaken further versus Bunds while southern European countries and EU continue to paint a positive picture
Uncertainty looms large as presidential race far from clear and budget negotiations potentially ‘highly challenging’
Summer in full swing but first two weeks of August not completely off the cards for non-euro deals
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Sovereign, supranational and agency issuers rushed to get deals done in the short window after last week’s Federal Reserve Open Markets Committee meeting and the German election at the weekend and ahead of holidays in Asia next week. Most dollar issuers got deals away without a hitch, but a five year for African Development Bank (AfDB) fell shy of full of subscription while a three year from Agence Française de Developpement (AFD) got over the line, but at a wider level than the initial price thoughts.
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The Inter-American Development Bank (IADB) was set to round out a packed week for dollar issuance, having mandating banks to sell a 10 year bond. The deal is set to be priced on today (Friday), though there was some confusion in the market about the trade ahead of the mandate hitting screens.
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The European Stability Mechanism (ESM) has identified its first opportunity for an inaugural benchmark as the week of October 7. SSA bankers expect Europe’s permanent bail-out mechanism to print a deal between five and 10 years in tenor, and if it pays a decent new issue premium, it could haul in a large amount of orders.
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Italy shook off renewed threats to its fragile coalition government this week to auction debt at its lowest level since May, while bankers talked up Spain’s ability to extend its curve with a 30 year deal.
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Rentenbank and the Inter-American Development Bank both sold Kangaroo debt on Wednesday, with Renten pricing long 10 year bonds and IADB choosing to sell five year debt. Both deals hit their minimum targets, but were unable to grow beyond that level with many investors waiting on the sidelines ahead of an anticipated increase in yields.
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Electricity Deficit Amortisation Fund (FADE) broke two records on Tuesday morning, printing its tightest ever deal over the Spanish sovereign during its quickest book build.