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Analysts discuss the scope of tightening in Bund swap spreads and the impact on SSA spreads
OATs and OLOs could weaken further versus Bunds while southern European countries and EU continue to paint a positive picture
Uncertainty looms large as presidential race far from clear and budget negotiations potentially ‘highly challenging’
Summer in full swing but first two weeks of August not completely off the cards for non-euro deals
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The public sector debt market gave a relaxed reaction to the announcement on Tuesday that the US government would begin the shutdown of federal agencies following its failure to agree terms on a new budget. Chinese holidays had already put paid to SSA benchmark activity this week, but many bankers are optimistic about the possibility of seeing some dollar supply next week despite the drama in Washington DC.
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The partial shutdown of the US government on Tuesday as a result of legislators’ inability to agree terms for a new budget has thrown the Kangaroo market into a state of torpor, with only one deal — from a FIG issuer — so far this week. A resolution to the political impasse in the US would tempt SSAs to look at bringing deals, said syndicate bankers.
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Kommuninvest, which sold a three year Swedish krona benchmark on Tuesday, is aiming to print a longer dated deal in its next sally to the domestic market. But the tenor of its lending is likely to keep the agency’s ambitions for duration modest.
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Poland, which is likely to complete its international and domestic funding for 2013 by the end of October, will consider pre-funding for 2014 if market conditions are attractive.
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Spain auctioned 10 year debt at its lowest yield in more than three years on Thursday, as markets calmed following the resolution of a political crisis in Italy. Italy will be keen to emulate Spain when it auctions debt next week.
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Poland, which is likely to complete its international and domestic funding for 2013 by the end of October, will consider pre-funding for 2014 if market conditions are attractive.