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Asset manager AllianceBernstein is offering a drastically different view on the knock on effects from the renminbi’s inclusion in the IMF’s Special Drawing Rights (SDR) basket. While the consensus is that it will have little impact on the desirability of RMB assets, the manager is forecasting a huge spike in demand.
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The renminbi may have got the go head to join the list of currencies backing IMF’s Special Drawing Rights basket, but the change will not actually go live until October 16. Although the IMF has said the delay is merely due to operational reason, questions are being asked about whether other factors are at play.
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In a widely anticipated move, the IMF executive board has approved the renminbi as the fifth currency in the Special Drawing Rights (SDR) basket of currencies with a weighting of 10.92%, the IMF said in a November 30 statement. The new SDR will go into effect as of October 1, 2016.
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Small firms may be set to benefit from new rules proposed by the European Commission meant to lower the cost and bureaucracy associated with accessing the capital markets, but issuers of bonds to institutional investors are likely to be hit with greater expense.
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November was a big month for the RMB qualified foreign institutional investor (RQFII) programme. One new jurisdiction, Malaysia, entered the arena, while Bank of China Luxembourg (BoC Luxembourg) and ICBC (Europe) became the first Luxembourg quota recipients.
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Offshore renminbi funding costs have increased 100bp-150bp in recent weeks after China’s central bank shut down cross-border lending. The move was designed to reduce volatility in offshore renminbi (CNH) ahead of the IMF decision on its Special Drawing Rights basket, several offshore traders have said to GlobalRMB.