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Underlying concerns among investors and issuers about covered bonds force them to the sidelines
Market participants agree new issue premiums will go up when the Iran war ends, but not by how much
Specialist investors and strong names dominate as issuers stretch out to 15 years
Unsecured bonds could become more expensive to issue, covered bonds cheaper
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The euro covered bond market shook off a volatile end to 2024 to rebound with a raft of exceptionally popular deals in 2025. Investors appeared eager to pile into euro covered bond books this year, propelling bid-to-cover ratios upwards and new issue premium downwards, writes Frank Jackman -
Covered bond funders will have to weave their way through tight senior unsecured and wide SSA spreads in 2026 if they are to refinance the wave of redemptions that awaits them. One big question for the year ahead, discovers Frank Jackman, is whether issuers will be tempted to pay up for duration
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Implementation could push covered spreads closer to govvies and SSAs
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Covered bond redemptions are set to increase by €20bn next year and €30bn in 2027
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Strong demand for slim supply could tempt issuers to access the market before Christmas
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No investors involved in Caffil's latest deal mentioned concerns over French risk
