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GlobalCapital has put together a series of charts looking at the financial institutions bond market in 2019 and beyond.

Covered bonds performed well in 2019, but yields finished in negative territory and spreads ended at their tightest for the year. The implication is that, despite higher than expected ECB covered bond purchases and a renewal of its ultra-cheap TLTRO facility, investors will struggle to match 2019’s returns in 2020, writes Bill Thornhill.

Navigating the covered bond market will not be without its challenges in 2020. The Targeted Longer Term Refinancing Operation (TLTRO), European Central Bank deposit tiering and the Covered Bond Purchase Programme have collectively distorted the market, but added to this concoction is the impact of negative interest rates. Against this backdrop issuers, investors and investment bankers gathered in Munich in November to discuss the outlook for covered bonds. It is likely that new issue premiums will gradually tighten, but the path is unlikely to be smooth. January is typically the busiest month, but in 2019, issuers that funded this early paid the highest spreads. And, with the ECB expected to buy in the region of €4.5bn covered bonds a month, issuers will not feel compelled to move early. But the ECB monetary policy has unwelcome implications. Covered bonds have begun to lose value against government bonds, and this will extend if the ECB is unable to loosen restrictions on government bond purchases.

European banks are about as close as they can be to having clarity on their minimum requirements for own funds and eligible liabilities (MREL). Now it’s up to them to figure out what impact the new bond standard will have on their funding plans, annual profits and business models. Tyler Davies reports

Banks and insurance companies are finally straining to turn capital markets greener. With many having realised there are savings to be had in issuing green senior bonds, the idea of them embracing sustainable capital instruments seems to be just around the corner. David Freitas reports

European banks no longer really have to think about building up layers of additional tier one debt. All of the focus has shifted to managing and refreshing this capital layer, and taking full advantage of a ferocious hunt for yield. Tyler Davies reports

It was a year when the corporate bond market first had to get used to a world without QE — and then digest its return. Spreads tightened sharply after the summer following the ECB’s decision to restart its Corporate Sector Purchase Programme. But that did not mean all the best deals came after September. Far from it.

The European Central Bank opened its wallet again at the end of 2019 and started buying corporate bonds, but its largesse is a shadow of what it was. With inflation still a long way below target, it is expected to ramp up its buying in 2020

For several years, the green bond market has spread geographically, attracted new kinds of issuer and new assets — but structurally, it has remained stable. Now that is changing. The urgency of climate change has made swathes of the economy realise they must go green. New products — transition bonds and sustainability-linked bonds — have been devised to help. But as Jon Hay reports, they will not be easy for the market to digest

A rich variety of UK borrowers including a football club, two airports, the City and a clutch of FTSE 250 firms turned to US private placements in 2019. UK local authorities remained absent, but a surprise from the UK Treasury in October may be a game-changer

The Schuldschein market is touching records for overall volume and number of deals in 2019, and in any normal year that would be what excites the market most. But instead, most pride comes from the progress made in Asia as well as innovations in sustainable financing

After assembling mega-funds that can commit loans of €1bn and more, direct lenders are gaining ground in leveraged finance at notable speed. Besides size, firms such as Alcentra, Ares, BlueBay and ICG offer borrowers privacy, speed, fixed terms and long-term commitment. But are they all equipped for the torrent of distressed situations the next downturn is likely to bring?