Deutsche Bank Forecasts Profit In Dollar Calls

  • 22 Oct 2001
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Deutsche Bank is recommending clients purchase one-year at-the-money U.S. dollar calls/yen puts to take advantage of low volatilities caused by the Bank of Japan's intervention to create a dollar floor around JPY119 and the belief in a U.S. recovery next year, said Ken Landon, senior currency strategist at Deutsche Bank in Tokyo. "It's a pretty straightforward strategy-a lot of people like that," he added, "anyone who wants to take a directional view would be interested."

Now is a good time to enter the trade, Landon noted, adding "I don't see vols going any lower." At these levels there is good value for a one-year time frame where an investor can take profits at any time during the year by unwinding the position. One-year implied vol was around 10.4% Thursday.

Landon continued that Deutsche Bank's one-year forecast for the currency pairing is that it would head to JPY140. "We're one of the most bullish houses on the street [for dollar strengthening over yen]," Landon added. The factors he attributes to the yen appreciating are a V-shaped recovery in the U.S. next year, assisted by Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts, while Japan's economy will remain weak. "I don't see anything benefiting [Japan's] economy," he continued. Last Thursday spot was at JPY120.85. He declined to comment on the premium for the trade.

  • 22 Oct 2001

All International Bonds

Rank Lead Manager Amount $m No of issues Share %
  • Last updated
  • Today
1 Citi 416,634.23 1594 9.03%
2 JPMorgan 379,647.36 1732 8.23%
3 Bank of America Merrill Lynch 359,625.73 1304 7.80%
4 Barclays 267,126.92 1079 5.79%
5 Goldman Sachs 267,110.09 921 5.79%

Bookrunners of All Syndicated Loans EMEA

Rank Lead Manager Amount $m No of issues Share %
  • Last updated
  • Today
1 HSBC 45,314.03 193 6.64%
2 Deutsche Bank 37,536.19 138 5.50%
3 BNP Paribas 36,532.54 211 5.36%
4 JPMorgan 34,490.59 115 5.06%
5 Bank of America Merrill Lynch 33,700.87 110 4.94%

Bookrunners of all EMEA ECM Issuance

Rank Lead Manager Amount $m No of issues Share %
  • Last updated
  • Today
1 JPMorgan 22,398.41 104 8.67%
2 Morgan Stanley 19,092.40 102 7.39%
3 Citi 17,768.49 110 6.88%
4 UBS 17,693.89 71 6.85%
5 Goldman Sachs 17,256.05 98 6.68%