The Pythia, the Oracle of Delphi, was known for her ambiguous prophecies.
Divinely possessed by Apollo, the Pythia would utter prophecies in a trance-like state, leaving an attendant priest to interpret her musings.
Some 2,300 years after the Oracle was last consulted, her ambiguous legacy lives on in the most unlikely of places: corporate borrowing plans.
Investment grade companies are known for their often vague funding plans, giving limited visibility on how much they need to raise in the current year.
Of course, analysts can hunt through earning calls and reports to glean some sort of insight into borrowing targets. But doing so can, at times, be about as effective as ornithomancy.
This week, the modern day Oracle, the US tech group, showed that being upfront and clear about what you want to raise is the best policy.
The software and cloud hyperscaler allayed market fears of a flood of bond issuance to fund its huge artificial intelligence capex plans by releasing a funding plan statement before hitting the markets.
This calmed market fears of rampant bond issuance.
Oracle stated on Sunday that it would raise only $45bn-$50bn with debt and equity instruments. That was more than analysts had expected. CreditSights, for instance, had forecast about $35bn.
However, the market responded well to Oracle’s crystal clarity. It said only half the money would be raised in the debt markets, and that Oracle would do it with a single deal. Its spreads tightened in response.
The AI capex arms race leaves US Big Tech companies with annual funding needs in the syndicated bond market comparable to a medium-sized European government. The $25bn Oracle raised this week is roughly three times the annual funding need of Greece.
That points to something hyperscalers can learn from governments. They — indeed the entire supranational, sovereign and agency market — pride themselves on predictability and clear communication to investors about funding needs, giving no alarms and no surprises.
Public sector borrowers believe that helps investors clear the decks to take on new bonds, so they can get the most possible buyers to make space in their portfolios.
Alphabet, Meta and Microsoft have not got the email yet. They talked of massive capex plans in their latest results, but gave no straightforward indication of how much they will borrow.
What the other hyperscalers could learn from Oracle is that sometimes being open about your plans is best.
Don't surprise the market with $25bn on a Monday morning — telegraph it.