Non-core currency bonds resilient in the face of US uncertainty
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Non-core currency bonds resilient in the face of US uncertainty

Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential election went largely unnoticed in key niche currency bond markets on Wednesday morning. Non-core currency bankers were confident pipelines will remain unchanged in Norway, and Switzerland.

The mood in Zurich was optimistic. There was not a surge in the Swiss franc similar to that seen when the UK voted to leave the EU in June. The franc rose 0.1% to Sfr0.97634 to the dollar in early trading.

"Ask the guys at the central bank why there was no currency rise," said one Swiss banker. The Swiss National Bank intervenes in the franc to keep it stable, but rarely publicly.

With the franc stable and rates positive out to 11 years. Swiss bankers were confident that domestic borrowing will remain steady.

In fact, ZKB led a succesful Sfr100m ($102.08m) 10 year trade by Urner Kantonalbank as the US poll results were coming in on Wednesday morning. The key investors in the Swiss market are domestic, and so are less likely to be affected by US elections. 

US borrowers are unlikely to issue in Swiss francs in the near future, as the cross-currency basis swap widened on Wednesday morning, a Swiss banker said. It is likely to remain wide for the rest of the year.

I get Nok'd down, but I get up again

Two non-core currency bankers believed the Norwegian market will also be resilient in the face of the unexpected election result.

“There are clues from the Norwegian response to the Eurozone debt crisis,” one London based niche currency banker said. Norway’s recent popularity as a capital market stems from the country’s strategy to avoid negative interest rates.

The Norwegian krone peaked at Nkr0.12230 to the dollar on Wednesday morning, and was trading at Nkr0.12049 as GlobalCapital went to press. 

The Norwegian market is still tightly correlated with the price of oil. Brent crude oil added 0.2% to initial losses on Wednesday, reaching $46.18 a barrel. This price is far stronger than the $29.73 a barrel 12 year lows of January 2016.

“Market participants are more concerned with monetary policy than commodity pricing now the oil price is stable,” said an official for a Norwegian borrower. 

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