Covered Bonds
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◆ Popular trade performs in secondary ◆ Performance erases premium ◆ NAB offers an attractive relative value proposition -
◆ Deal appears tight compared to recent supply ◆ 'Decent' pick up paid over SSAs ◆ Slim premium offered over Nordic peers
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◆ 'Humongous' compression at the long end attractive ◆ Small premium paid on tighter headline level ◆ Tasty pick up still offered over KfW
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◆ Belgium arm takes size with first deal since February 2024 ◆ Slim premium paid ◆ More Benelux supply expected
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Core Europe to lead the charge but without German issuers
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Belly of the curve likely to be most active, but anything from three to 10 years is doable
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HQLA investors have reallocated away from covered and into SSAs
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DekaBank's sub-benchmark success shows investors are there, but issuers are unwilling to follow
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◆ First syndicated covered bond since early July almost four time covered ◆ Deal lands tight but still offers SSA pick-up ◆ RFPs circulate as pipeline builds
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◆ Wendel proves the summer market isn't just for the big boys ◆ Trio of new issues show buoyant market for banks ◆ Private credit's threat to the investment grade bond and loan markets
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Senior funding there for the taking, covered bonds yet to take off — but conditions are great for all
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Aussie covered supply could rise if proposal to lift cover pool cap passes
