Turkey

Amid the chaos in Turkey, bankers are pitching bond buy-back opportunities to the country's beleaguered banks. Many argue that those in a position to take them up should be looked upon favourably by investors. The problem is, those investors might not even notice.

Two rating agencies lowered Turkey’s credit rating on Friday evening, but the beleaguered nation’s asset prices have largely shrugged off the news, despite predictions of a recession.

The sovereign credit crisis spurred lawmakers to undertake a number of major initiatives designed to sever the ‘doom loop’ — the link between sovereign and bank credit risk. Recent events in Italy and Turkey show the limits of these policies, but not their impotence.

Emerging market currencies and bond yields were battered this week as old school contagion — the like of which has been absent for many years — infected the market as the Turkish lira crashed. But there is hope that a bounce back for many of these countries could be imminent, as it was after the 2013 taper tantrum. Francesca Young reports.

Banks with major exposures to Turkey were getting hammered after a loss of financial market confidence pushed the country towards a crisis at the beginning of the week. But analysts suggest that any fears of contagion into the European banking sector are overdone.

Within a fortnight, the Republic of Turkey is planning to announce “additional sources of financing” to fill a $2.5bn gap in its 2018 external bond funding plans, Berat Albayrak, the country's finance minister, said on an investor conference call on Thursday afternoon. Albayrak also said Turkey is not in talks with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and ruled out capital controls.

The cost of buying credit default swaps on Turkish five year government debt has stopped its upward trajectory and eased lower, even as the country’s standoff with the US continues.

The collapse in the Turkish lira has stoked fears as to how the nation’s borrowers will repay their foreign currency debt just as the country's foreign exchange reserves are shrinking.

Turkey’s finance minister, Berat Albayrak, is holding an investor call at 2pm London time today. Over 5,000 participants are registered for the call and will be looking to see if the politician can bring calm to the crisis engulfing Turkish and wider emerging markets.

EM bond investors are watching Turkish banks closely, as some of the banks have heavy maturities falling due in the next year and capital ratios are being battered by the huge drop in the lira. But DCM bankers are telling these issuers that the lower levels may mean there are opportunities for buy-backs.

Good old fashioned contagion has led the worsening situation in the Turkish market battering the rest of emerging markets this week as a plummeting lira and spiking Turkish CDS levels spooked buyers across CEEMEA and Latin America. Even western Europe has been feeling the heat as investors start to fret about Turkish exposure.

Asia’s offshore bond market ran to a near stand-still this week, with just one issuer selling a dollar bond. While the typical summer lull is to blame for at least some of the quiet, bankers were divided on whether the crisis in Turkey has made things worse for Asian issuers.