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◆ Sovereign back in euros, alternating from dollars in 2025 ◆ “Very low double digit” spread over Germany ◆ Sweden, KfW key comps
Likely successor as UK prime minister Andy Burnham further to the political 'left than anyone else’ but market hopeful that scope for more borrowing is limited
Fiscal targets for 2026 already met, more early debt repayments underway
A rally thanks to cheaper oil has let the Gilt market defer its reckoning with political risk. But it is coming, for sure
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◆ Fair value calcs far from straightforward ◆ Largest book for index-linked Gilt offering ◆ Less index-linked issuance in 2025-26? -
Bloc to open new 10 year line, first syndication since Europe’s ‘ReArm’ moment last week
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◆ EU puts forward €800bn plan ◆ Germany screeches into U-turn on debt brake ◆ Bund yield soars 40bp
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Core SSA spreads suffer as EU-level funding expected to jump, but concerns also loom over Bunds and other govvies
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Debt sustainability should be at the core of every spending decision to be made
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◆ German state braves extreme spread volatility ◆ Deal was priced after government signalled higher Bund and Länder supply ◆ ‘Flip side for investors’ is much higher yield
