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Primary market for public sector unlikely to see large transactions until after Easter, reckon bankers
Market participants pray for no negative news overnight in hope of ‘pre-Easter wave of issuance’
Two day executions expose dollar issuers to market volatility
◆ 'Pragmatic' and 'flexible' about execution window ◆ Tight spreads to Germany, Netherlands achieved ◆ Trio of euro deals to come on Tuesday
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Government yields have risen rapidly this week, led by the US Treasury curve, as investors bet big on stimulus from that country. With little activity in the primary markets, bankers have been speculating on the possible effects of higher yields on issuers’ strategies.
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There were flashbacks to last month’s Spanish syndication in the bond market this week as Italy made an emphatic start to the Draghi era in the BTP market. The borrower shed billions of orders on Tuesday after aggressively pricing its first syndication since the appointment of the ex-ECB chief as the country’s prime minister. Burhan Khadbai reports.
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Two factors bear outsized influence on capital markets — Covid-19 and central bank stimulus. But the temptation to see these powerful forces culminating in one of two extreme outcomes — another crash as a feeble economy flounders, or a boom like the 1920s US — must be resisted.
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Italy hit the market with a dual tranche on Tuesday, raising €4bn with a 30 year linker and €10bn with a new 10 year BTP. A sharp move in pricing on the 10 year leg meant it lost €45bn of orders, but SSA bankers on and off the deal said the trade was still a good result.
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European investors have wholeheartedly embraced the EU’s Next Generation EU programme and piled into risky assets in anticipation of a swifter recovery. But rating agencies are less convinced, warning that only the substance and implementation of national recovery plans will determine the trajectory of European growth.