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The dollar SSA market at the end of 2018 was in stark contrast to euros, despite the latter outstripping it in volume over the year. Even uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s rate path in 2019 seems unlikely to shake the fortitude of the currency as a funding source for SSAs. But finding windows could become trickier as the Fed pulls liquidity amid global trade wars and rising populism.

In the last year that sovereigns, supranationals and agencies could enjoy the effects of the European Central Bank’s quantitative easing programme — but still had to cope with the Fed pushing up rates — GlobalCapital’s SSA team used its editorial judgement, with inspiration from GC’s world-famous bond comments and patented BondMarker app, to pick what it felt were the top trades of the year. The team strove to find deals that were not just the biggest — it looked for trades that set pricing markers, were innovative and brave or that made an impression in other ways. GC presents the winners here. Congratulations to the issuers and banks involved.

Financial institutions have sold more secured bonds in place of unsecured debt in 2018, according to the European Banking Authority. But the watchdog expects that the sector will confront an 'important challenge' next year, when some banks will face pressure to sell riskier securities to meet new loss-absorbing debt requirements.

Work to bring the new risk-free rates to the dollar and sterling bond markets began in earnest this year as several issuers brought notes linked to them. But 2019 could be where clarity emerges on which of the different structures will win out.

The bond market is well ahead of schedule in its adoption of potential Libor replacements, with several issuers having printed notes linked to the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (Sofr) in the dollar market, and to the Sterling Overnight Index Average (Sonia) in sterling. Borrowers are setting strong standards for other participants to take up, as well as adjusting structures to ensure the eventual market is optimal. That does not mean the job is finished, of course. GlobalCapital spoke to some of the pioneers in the Sonia and Sofr markets about their work so far — and the challenges ahead.

A revolution is occurring in the Schuldschein market. This sedate and sober instrument has shaken its fusty reputation and transformed into a bustling hotbed of technological progress. Seven digital platforms sprang up in 2018, each declaring a grand ambition to drive efficiency. But with platforms jockeying for position, under the eye of the German regulator, some question the rate of change and the authenticity of some agents of it.

Equity capital markets bankers are expecting to be busy in 2019 despite the volatility that has marred the last few months of 2018. Nevertheless, they are predicting IPO sellers to be far more cautious when the market re-opens in January.

The leveraged finance market has been the best business for capital markets banks this year — but rising debt levels, weakened investor protections and the rapidly growing volumes have brought regulatory attention. Some banks are pulling back from the most aggressive deals, but others are taking their place, and a burgeoning non-bank lending sector is keeping the market white hot regardless.

Sustainability is conquering finance — to judge by what the industry likes to talk about. Outside the window, the real economy continues much as before. Is all the noise about green finance actually shifting capital in the right direction — or is it just making people feel better?

The Federal Open Market Committee is set to meet on Wednesday and, while a rate hike is expected, those in emerging markets have their fingers crossed for signs of a more dovish approach in 2019.

Bond market participants mostly welcomed news that Ecuador had signed a loan with China last week, with some stating that the government’s fiscal adjustment left the sovereign’s bonds looking attractive despite a negative outlook from Moody’s.

US lawmakers have penned their first major reform of the policies drawn up to make banks safer after the financial crisis, and signs suggest that further deregulation could be on the cards during president Donald Trump’s remaining time in office. Tyler Davies asks if this is the beginning of the end for the international push towards tougher banking rules?