Middle East

The IPO of Saudi Aramco is likely to remain a top talking point for equity capital markets bankers for much of 2017, but another Saudi deal that is likely to prove more straightforward to bring to market has taken another step forward.

Israel became the first emerging market sovereign to put down a marker in the bond market this year with the announcement of a European roadshow next week.

Middle Eastern issuance is set to begin for the year with Gulf International Bank, which is looking to refinance a $500m bond due in December. The issuer is expected to be the first of many hoping to lock in funding before the next US rate hike pushes up borrowing costs.

Likely faced with an assault course of volatility inducing events this year, emerging market issuers will be keen to raise cash early before Brexit/Trump/rate rises/European elections (delete as appropriate) come to blight the market.

The next chapter of the renminbi internationalisation process could soon be taking place in the commodities market with Amundi Asset Management predicting the rise of petro-renminbi in 2017.

Emerging market bankers are optimistic for a busy first quarter after markets opened on Tuesday in a much stronger position than they had a year ago. Sovereign issuers from the Middle East and CEE are expected to lead the charge.

The global rise in dollar funding, combined with political upheaval and the heavy depreciation of the lira are destroying some of the historically borrower-friendly terms available in the Turkish loan market. Elly Whittaker reports.

Strong credit fundaments and a supportive technical bid from local investors should help the GCC’s borrowers to weather any volatility thrown at them in 2017. But analysts warn of political threats putting negative pressure on the region’s bond prices. Virginia Furness reports.

CEEMEA borrowers had their busiest year since 2013 this year, issuing $157bn of international bonds which is just shy of double 2015’s volumes.

Turkish participation bank Turkiye Finans (TFKB) has agreed a $180m Islamic club loan with similar pricing to its loans in recent years, despite sector-wide downgrades for Turkish banks after a turbulent year in the country in 2016.

Four European lenders have turned down a $2bn loan for National Bank of Abu Dhabi (NBAD), while local banks are starting to return to secondary markets for the first time in a year — signs that the Middle Eastern loan market could see a different set of banks driving it in 2017. Elly Whittaker reports.

It’s that time of year when analysts dust off their crystal balls and make predictions for the next 12 months. In December 2015 not many were forecasting that Britain would vote to leave the EU, and even fewer were betting on a Donald Trump presidential victory, so investors would be wise to treat such missives with caution. Political risk is a capricious beast, even for the most seasoned market observers.