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  • We noted last month that realised volatility in the European investment grade CDS market, as measured by the Markit VolX index, was at its lowest for two years. By the end of October, volatility had dipped to 18%, which was the lowest level since the heady days of June 2007. A number of future events were mooted that had the potential to trigger market uncertainty, including next month’s Italian referendum.
  • Trump, Brexit, giant sinkholes in Japan – there’s plenty happening in the world to make this year a tough one for anyone, including bankers. Clients, for their part, are taking the opportunity to squeeze every penny out of the banks that come knocking. But bankers are finding ways to make the most of a bad situation.
  • It has been the year where Chinese banks went from challenger to champion in Asian investment banking. Growing almost as fast have been the complaints from international rivals. Bankers at global firms may not like the methods but Chinese banks are liquid and they are here to stay: it’s time to adapt.
  • Issuers and their bankers have been too slow to react to the swift change in sentiment since the US election. That oversight became glaringly obvious this week with deals from BBVA and ANZ, but the mood swing was clear well before that.
  • Donald Trump, US president-elect, is espousing a position long held by ECB president Mario Draghi: monetary policy is not the whole solution. It’s time to start building.
  • Rather than wailing about a regulatory Trumpocalypse, those who care about the health of financial markets should seize upon last week’s shock US presidential result to help bring about meaningful and beneficial changes.
  • There’s been no shortage of volatility in recent years, often ignited by one-off exogenous events — regional political uncertainties, the unexpected tone in a phrasing uttered by a central banker — and founded on a prolonged search for yield that has led to a one-sided market.
  • The United States has elected a president who wants to tear up the country’s climate commitments, and burn coal like there’s no tomorrow. But financial institutions don’t need to follow the path of collective insanity. Many banks have already committed to stop or reduce their lending to coal. Even if the US government gets back into this obsolete, dirty fuel, banks should not follow.
  • The Chinese government is starting to sound like a broken record by repeating over and over again that there is nothing to fear from the continued depreciation of the renminbi. But with the currency hitting an eight-year low against the dollar, it’s time for Beijing to provide some genuine guidance before the markets stop listening for good.
  • P&M Notebook
    It’s been, by any stretch of the imagination, a crazy week. Financial markets may have mostly snapped back from the Trump-induced panic of Tuesday night, and are now positioning for a US government stimulus of some sort. Meanwhile, there’s everything to play for on financial regulation.
  • The world is grasping at the meaning of a Trump presidency. As snippets of policy dribble out of the Trump machine, financial markets roll and pitch in retort, while that placid pond of liquidity, the EMEA loan market, remains calm.
  • In this new Monday round-up from GlobalRMB, we bring you a collection of market and regulatory developments from the weekend as well as provide a preview of upcoming events this week.