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Underlying concerns among investors and issuers about covered bonds force them to the sidelines
Market participants agree new issue premiums will go up when the Iran war ends, but not by how much
Specialist investors and strong names dominate as issuers stretch out to 15 years
Unsecured bonds could become more expensive to issue, covered bonds cheaper
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A pair of German states, an agency and Pfandbrief issuer are all possible candidates -
◆ Smaller cover pools suppress funding needs ◆ Issuers consider benchmarks instead ◆ German and Austrian lenders provide bulk of supply
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◆ Prefunding discussions to pick up in the autumn ◆ Elevated spreads are deterring supply ◆ US election will dictate demand
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◆ Average benchmark tenor up from 2023 ◆ Seven years proves popular ◆ Longer dated deals look unlikely
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◆ New issue premiums return to euro covered issuance ◆ Issuers unable to tighten despite wider starting spreads ◆ French covered spreads could tighten
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◆ German banks raced out of the blocks this year ◆ Slower loan book growth to damp supply ◆ Pfandbrief spreads unlikely to tighten
