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Premiums may not be at risk of increasing yet but caution should remain the watchword
It will be better for all in the long run if Venezuela can prioritise domestic spending over debt repayments
The rollover risks sovereigns are accepting in exchange for cheaper funding
It's not the juniors in capital markets who need protecting from obsolescence. They stand to benefit most from the deployment of AI
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As spreads on public sector bonds surged wider last week, investors in the Swiss franc market appear to have been experiencing irrational cravings — for chocolate. Nestlé’s recent three year issue is trading at its tightest ever levels, making it more expensive even than similar European Investment Bank, KfW and World Bank deals.
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It was only a matter of time before Royal Bank of Scotland’s lending policy came under political pressure after the UK government stepped in to bail it out. In fact, it took a mere two weeks — time enough for it to be caught in the political storm involving Russian billionaire Oleg Deripaska.
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Moves in the European syndicated loan market to price according to CDS levels are no panacea for a scarcity of cash and banks’ higher funding costs. Worse, the first two borrowers to use market-based pricing are precisely those that are least likely to cause banks problems in the first place.
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Barclays Bank’s Eu3bn bond that priced last week made the whole concept of government guaranteed bank debt a reality — but it dismayed public sector bankers who blamed the issue for rocketing SSA spreads. A correction of those spreads was well overdue and shouldn’t be laid at the Barclays’ door.
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If Royal Bank of Scotland ends up selling any of its Asian operations following its likely acceptance of a high degree of UK government ownership, one name will justifiably top the list of likely bidders.
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The bond market for private sector issuers, at a standstill since the demise of Lehman Brothers, finally reopened last week. Even more encouraging was the fact that one of the transactions to come to market was an unguaranteed deal from a financial institution. However, while the signs are encouraging, a full return to health is still some way off.