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Premiums may not be at risk of increasing yet but caution should remain the watchword
It will be better for all in the long run if Venezuela can prioritise domestic spending over debt repayments
The rollover risks sovereigns are accepting in exchange for cheaper funding
It's not the juniors in capital markets who need protecting from obsolescence. They stand to benefit most from the deployment of AI
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The quartet of emerging markets sovereign bonds that priced in the first week of the year clearly showed how much cash investors have to put to work. Just as clearly, they show the importance of clever marketing and execution.
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The popular narrative of the credit crunch has it thus: bankers have destroyed livelihoods with reckless under-regulated casino capitalism based on fiat money which didn’t really exist. Already sounds like orthodoxy? Certainly, it is unquestioningly embedded into mainstream news and comment. It may also be partly true but it is also full of dangerous presumptions — the banking industry needs to do more than mumble the odd apology, it needs to tackle some pernicious cankers of ideas and communicate its case.
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The UK and other governments have been haranguing banks for not pouring their bail-out funds back into the economy. But for the banks concerned it would be reckless to do so. It’s time for governments to put up or shut up.
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Russia and Ukraine are squabbling again over gas prices. While Russia might have a point — and now actually needs the money to boot — neither country is doing much for its chances of slowing capital flight and its ability to bounce back from the credit crunch.
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Government guarantees have provided a welcome relief for the bond market, and some much needed activity for bankers. But the long-term effects may be hazardous for sovereign issuers.
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Who’d have thought it? Liquidity might be returning to the secondary leveraged loan market in the form of cashflows diverted away from CLO equity class holders. The irony is that these cashflows are only becoming available because of the poor performance of the underlying loans in the CLOs.