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The public bond market needs a Gulf reopener with transparent pricing
Turbulent market conditions of the Middle East war have pushed bond issuers and investors to try new things
A swift response is tempting, but lenders should avoid kneejerk reaction
Talk of de-dollarisation has evaporated. The dollar market remains the undisputed king of financing
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Asian corporations are returning to the market for bond taps rapidly after launching their original deals. That certainly makes sense for those companies, but it could damage the chances of others by making investors a lot more aggressive the first time a deal hits the market.
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The ECB's long term refinancing operation (LTRO) has worked miracles for the primary market and is arguably the only emergency measure to date to have had the desired effect. But central bankers need to think extremely carefully before serving up more of the same.
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Now that Greece has its bail-out, thinking about a PSI 2 for Portugal is fine, but let’s keep it theoretical. The last thing Europe needs now is to feel that contagion is real after all.
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The more LTRO funding banks take, the more their senior creditors become structurally subordinated. Another big shot in the arm at the end of February means senior debt gets pushed further down the capital structure. But party on — the ECB won’t let anyone go bankrupt.
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Everyone involved in the, what at times seemed interminable, €130bn Greek bail-out should take a bow. Greece will now make it through its March redemption date without spiralling into default. But it is hard to feel any more positive than that about the announcements. It’s worth remembering the numbers involved mean the Greek episode is in fact a mere sideshow compared to the rest of Europe’s debt slagheap.
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With Eurozone banks having made a slow return to the Russian loan market over the first two months of 2012, they fear that domestic lenders are primed to capture market share. But Russian banks must change their attitudes towards pricing and documentation before they can fill the funding gap.