Canada

More dollar deals are expected next week following a searing few days for trades in the currency, but despite bumper books and deal sizes, some in the market feel there is still some price discovery work to do. Meanwhile, US president-elect Donald Trump made his presence felt on the issuance calendar.

The socially responsible investment market for public sector bond issuers is shaping up for another busy year, with one agency planning a debut print in the next few months.

As many as eight covered bonds were launched across three currencies this week, the vaguely discernible pattern suggesting better interest for the larger deals with intermediate maturities and particularly those from non-eurozone issuers where liquidity is most likely to be better.

Export Development Canada showed on Wednesday that despite some big deals this year in fives, there is still plenty of demand in the three year part of the dollar curve as it took the rare step of increasing a deal from its initial size target. The trade came as a trio of other dollar deals hit screens.

Public sector borrowers tore $10bn of funding from the dollar market on Tuesday, shaving several basis points from initial price thoughts in the process. Only one benchmark is on screens for Wednesday, but SSA bankers expect next week’s run-up to the inauguration of Donald Trump as US president on January 20 will be — in Trump terminology — “huge”.

The dollar covered bond market is in good shape, and it seems likely that issuers will want to follow the success of Bank of Montreal which last Wednesday issued the first benchmark of the year at a cheaper cost and in larger size than its previous deal issued six month ago.

Royal Bank of Canada, Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, Commonwealth Bank of Australia and Deutsche Pfandbriefbank tapped the sterling covered bond market this week at cheaper levels than they could have achieved in euros and dollars.

Royal Bank of Canada took advantage of deeper demand for fixed rate paper than floating in sterling covered bonds, issuing a five year trade on Wednesday. RBC has gathered more demand for its deal than Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, which issued a floating rate deal a day before.

Four covered bond issuers returned to the market on Tuesday with the first deals of 2017. Two €1.5bn 10 year transactions showed that borrowers are prioritising the tougher, longer duration deals and, while conditions permit, issuing in large size.

Canada’s low debt to GDP ratio and stable politics have made it a haven in a turbulent era in global politics. But, with fears of a wave of protectionism growing, the trade-focused country faces problems ahead. However, with its fiscal stimulus programme an example to other nations wishing to promote growth, Canada’s borrowers are confident they can adapt and prosper in the new political reality. GlobalCapital hosted this roundtable in early December.

At around €10bn Canadian banks are expected to issue the highest net volume of euro-denominated covered bonds in 2017. And, given high dollar redemptions, a favourable cross-currency swap and an active mortgage market, supply could even beat expectations.

A pair of public sector borrowers hit screens this week for dollar syndications, providing an unexpectedly strong climax to 2016.