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Bankers are preparing for a rush of additional tier one deals in November, with many issuers expected to tap the market after what is predicted to be a tepid October for issuance. While blackouts and the asset quality review (AQR) will keep banks away from the market in the coming weeks, supply is set to come back strongly once the AQR is out of the way.
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Standard & Poor's on Monday said it had downgraded almost 90% of the European financial subordinated debt that it rates, as it responded to the new regulatory environment of higher coupon deferral and bail-in risks.
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RSA Insurance hit the market on Thursday with a tier two sterling print, shrugging off recent volatility in the sub debt market. Bankers away from the deal judged it to offer a generous premium, though they conceded this was justified given recent market conditions.
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While October is likely to be a quiet month for issuance of additional tier notes with the market hampered by a recent sell-off and the impending asset quality review, bankers are looking ahead to what is shaping up to be a busy November. Strong banks will be looking to benefit from favourable AQR results, while their weaker counterparts will have little choice but to tap the market
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There were signs of recovery in the FIG subordinated market on Wednesday, with some securities beginning to trade tighter after a torrid time of it over the last week. While supply will be minimal in the next few weeks, the improved tone bodes well for a busy November after the European Central Bank’s asset quality review.