Parul Jain: Deputy Chief Economist, Nomura Securities International

Who will win the election?

  • 29 Oct 2004
Email a colleague
Request a PDF

Parul Jain

Who will win the election?

Bush could win by a narrow margin, but there's hope for Kerry if the non-economic factors come into play as evidenced by the polls.

What impact will it have on the bond market?

Since Kerry is more intent on battling the deficit and reinstating pay-as-you-go kind of rules, he would be viewed as a better candidate for deficit busting. That would be a plus for bonds and negative for stocks. But we don't see many spending cuts, and for that reason we could see a much bigger deficit.

Bush has been emphatic about keeping dividend and tax cuts, which would be a plus to the equity market. However, the equity markets also react to growth and I think Kerry would be a plus for financial markets in general.

  • 29 Oct 2004

All International Bonds

Rank Lead Manager Amount $m No of issues Share %
  • Last updated
  • Today
1 JPMorgan 20,817.74 56 8.80%
2 Citi 20,610.84 51 8.72%
3 Barclays 16,808.93 39 7.11%
4 HSBC 16,223.20 45 6.86%
5 BNP Paribas 14,082.74 30 5.95%

Bookrunners of All Syndicated Loans EMEA

Rank Lead Manager Amount $m No of issues Share %
  • Last updated
  • Today
1 BNP Paribas 56,371.71 236 6.79%
2 Credit Agricole CIB 50,115.87 240 6.03%
3 JPMorgan 46,785.38 108 5.63%
4 UniCredit 45,665.76 207 5.50%
5 SG Corporate & Investment Banking 43,321.52 173 5.21%

Bookrunners of all EMEA ECM Issuance

Rank Lead Manager Amount $m No of issues Share %
  • Last updated
  • Today
1 Morgan Stanley 114.77 1 17.52%
1 BNP Paribas 114.77 1 17.52%
3 Commerzbank Group 65.85 2 10.05%
4 Oakley Advisory Ltd 64.52 1 9.85%
4 Barclays 64.52 1 9.85%