Nonfarm Payrolls May Drive 10-Year Below 4%

Nonfarm payroll figures for October of less than 100,000 may temporarily drive 10-year Treasury yields below 4%.

  • 29 Oct 2004
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Nonfarm payroll figures for October of less than 100,000 may temporarily drive 10-year Treasury yields below 4%. Consensus expectation for the figure, to be released this Friday, is 164,000, a significant increase from September’s tally of 96,000.

Jason Schenker, economist at Wachovia Corp., believes his forecast of 80,000 will reflect the economy’s weakening growth. “The growth we’ve seen is moderating. If growth slowed in October more than September, it would seem rational that job growth would also slow,” Schenker said. The average job growth over the past 12 months has been 143,000, but that includes the exceptionally high numbers in March, April and May. Without those months, the average is 92,000, he said. 

Richard DeKaser, chief economist at National City Corporation, is at the high end of forecasts with an estimate of 260,000. He believes October’s figures will show a snap back from the job losses caused in September by the four hurricanes. “The September weakness was overwhelmingly concentrated in southeastern states and we should see a rebound more than accounting for the jobs lost there,” he said.

Payroll figures near his estimate would be very bearish for bonds. “If you get anything in the vicinity of what I’m predicting, that would suggest a greater level of strength in the economy than the market as accounted for,” he said.
  • 29 Oct 2004

All International Bonds

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3 Bank of America Merrill Lynch 221,389.46 762 7.78%
4 Goldman Sachs 171,499.26 554 6.03%
5 Barclays 169,046.60 646 5.94%

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5 Credit Agricole CIB 18,706.93 106 5.09%

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