Turkey

Garanti Bank has closed its loan refinancing at $783m-equivalent after receiving an orderbook of over $1bn. The borrower has welcomed 14 new lenders, as banks demonstrate their commitment to troubled Turkey.

Investors appear to be split over whether or not Turkey will follow through with its proposed purchase of a Russian S-400 missile system, in the face of likely sanctions from the US if it does.

Investors are clear that president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is once again to blame for another tumultuous week in Turkish assets. The country’s fate in the capital markets is in his hands. Investors have been quick to forgive in the past but their patience is not infinite.

The Turkish lira this week tumbled to levels it had not seen since last October’s economic crisis after Turkey’s electoral commission (YSK) annulled the results of Istanbul’s municipal elections that had been won by the opposition. Investors said they are concerned that economic reforms will be put on hold and are worried that higher interest rates will prolong the country’s recession.

Yapı Kredi Bank signed its spring loan refinancing on Thursday, having wrapped up the deal at $1.03bn. Bank of America Merrill Lynch and UniCredit are coordinators of the deal, which has 49 banks participating. The political uncertainty triggered by the decision to re-run the municipal elections in Istanbul has not dented international lenders’ appetite for financing Turkey’s banks.

Investors are aghast that Turkey’s national election board has cancelled the results of the Istanbul mayoral race, which the country's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s ruling party lost in March, and ordered a rerun. The country’s currency and CDS took a hit on Tuesday and is still reeling.

Turkey’s national election board has cancelled the results of the Istanbul mayoral race that president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s ruling party lost in March and ordered a rerun. This is widely thought of internationally as a blow to democracy, and in Istanbul citizens have taken to the streets in protest. But Erdoğan’s behaviour has been so unpredictable in the past year that there is hope the rerun in June will be free and fair enough for investors to breathe easy. It seems a bet made more in hope than expectation.

Garanti Bank will refinance part of an existing $1.4bn loan by mid-May, joining four other banks amid the Turkish refi season. Although one year spreads have widened slightly in the secondary market, largely due to the weakening lira, bankers believe Turkish financial institution debt is still attractive.

VakifBank is the latest Turkish bank to refinance its existing debt, managing to secure a roll-over ratio of 100%.

Argentina and Turkey are firmly established as volatile names in emerging market credit. Both sovereigns have political and economic issues that place them in the highly vulnerable bracket.

Turkey’s central bank on Thursday kept its policy rate at 24% and removed a commitment to tighten monetary conditions further if needed. The announcement disappointed investors, and is expected to intensify the sell-off in the lira.

The calls have started to emerge for Turkey to turn to the IMF. Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has always been dead set against the idea — and perhaps that’s for the best.