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Risk of complacency flagged as issuers continue to fund into summer
Investor relations efforts and euro demand help issuer price at ‘ambitious but not unrealistic’ level
◆ First euro deal since January 2024 ◆ Timing and tightening 'just right' ◆ Peer issuance provides confidence
◆ First €1bn three year Länder since end-2023 ◆ Deal prices in line with recent EIB, ESM in primary ◆ Secondary spread pick-up still attracted €1.5bn book
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Issuer expects second deal of same maturity in the autumn, while funding needs may change
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◆ Deal highlights Länder spread journey ◆ No price tightening ◆ Priced off KfW with minimal NIP
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◆ German state braves extreme spread volatility ◆ Deal was priced after government signalled higher Bund and Länder supply ◆ ‘Flip side for investors’ is much higher yield
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EGBs sell off as Germany tries to fund both infrastructure and defence through debt brake reform
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◆ Not covered but not uncommon ◆ Prices around 2bp through fixed rate curve ◆ More German state supply expected
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◆ Bond tightens 5bp from guidance ◆ Highest subscribed deal so far this week ◆ Relative value highlights issuer as 'strongest' Belgian region