Italy

The junior debt of Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena rallied strongly on Wednesday on reports the Italian government was preparing to buy €2bn of subordinated bonds from retail investors, support which could potentially avoid the European Commission’s onerous state aid rules.

Banca Monte dei Paschi’s shares leapt 7% on Wednesday morning, on growing hopes that a way will be found for the Italian state to strengthen its balance sheet, enabling it to achieve a €5bn capital raising demanded by the European Central Bank and avoid a bail-in.

The market was already expecting that the European Central Bank would announce an extension to quantitative easing — and be tight-lipped on tapering — at its next governing council meeting on Thursday. The resignation of Italy's prime minister Matteo Renzi following defeat in a constitutional referendum on Sunday now means the central bank has little choice but to offer some more easing.

Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena and the underwriters of its €5bn capital raising have agreed with the prospective cornerstone investors in the deal to push back the launch of the sale by three or four days, after the resignation of Italy’s prime minister Matteo Renzi on Sunday night.

Shares in Amundi, the French asset manager, closed 3.2% higher on Monday after it announced that it had entered into exclusive negotiations with UniCredit to buy its asset management division Pioneer Investments, in a deal that could be worth €3.5bn.

Early morning volatility had largely retraced by mid-morning in investment grade euro corporate bonds on Monday, as market participants, for once this year, got the political result they expected from Sunday’s Italian referendum.

Covered bond spreads of Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena widened further on Monday on modest volumes after Sunday’s Italian constitutional referendum and the resignation of prime-minister, Matteo Renzi.

The spectacle of Italian prime minister Matteo Renzi’s political suicide did little to rattle financial markets on Monday morning, with any immediate negativity in credit and equity that had not already been priced in ahead of the country’s Sunday referendum quickly eased over by shorters monetising their gains.

The 'no' vote in Italy’s referendum on constitutional reform was met on Monday morning with a muted reaction in credit and equity markets but, with profound uncertainty overhanging the political situation and Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena’s rescue plan, analysts are not optimistic about the performance of the Italian financial sector in the short term.

The public sector bond market rode out the widely expected ‘no’ result of the Italian constitutional referendum on Sunday night, as bankers looked at a possible silver lining in the form of a more dovish European Central Bank meeting on Thursday.

Corporate bond investors are not taking Sunday’s Italian constitutional referendum lightly, but their minds are much more heavily focused on the European Central Bank’s meeting four days later.

A No vote in Italy’s referendum on constitutional reform will rock already struggling Italian bank debt spreads, but FIG market participants are prepared to weather any volatility as they wait for the opportunity to lock up investors’ remaining cash this year.