Euro

Four Greek covered bonds on the brink of junk status will remain on rating watch negative, though structural adjustments have strengthened the programmes. Fitch maintained mortgage covered bonds issued by Alpha Bank, Eurobank EFG, National Bank of Greece (NBG) Programme II and Piraeus Bank on rating watch negative on Friday.

Moody’s placed Spanish government bonds (Aa2) and the debt and deposit ratings of five Spanish banks on review for downgrade on Friday, because of funding pressure facing the Spanish government, and challenges to fiscal consolidation. Though the covered bonds of the banks concerned are likely to be unaffected in the short term, the negative rating action is worrying for weaker Spanish issuers.

Peripheral sovereign bonds are once again heading towards their recent widest spread levels but covered bonds, as usual, are lagging the move. Real money buying of peripheral covered bonds has been at levels 60bp through the government in some cases. Volumes are small, however, and bid offer spreads are wide as concerns around volatility continue to weigh in on sentiment.

Europe’s politicians agreed on a second rescue package for Greece on Thursday, providing markets with much needed succour. However, covered bond practitioners said this does not mean the market is suddenly in risk-on mode. Investors and issuers, they said, will want to see extended stability in spreads before putting in large bids or printing new paper.

The fight for the Danish mortgage system will continue, as CRD IV proposals released on Wednesday left undefined which assets would qualify as Level 1 or Level 2 as part of Basel III’s Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR).

Fitch became the latest rating agency to downgrade bonds to the border of sub investment grade on Thursday, when it cut the covered bonds of four Greek banks. Its leniency relative to Moody’s, which already rates the covered bonds concerned sub investment grade, means the bonds remain repo eligible.

Investors have plenty of cash to put to work and there is scope for modest issuance next week if stable market conditions prevail but thereafter the funding window is expected to move to late August. In the secondary market, spreads are slightly wider but activity is mostly confined to price checking. Italian auctions went well, breeding a little confidence but overall conditions still remain nervous.

The market has been pricing in a catastrophic scenario of sovereign default for some months, but the largest swing in sentiment, where Delta is now at its highest, is in Italy. In the last three trading sessions, Italian government bonds have significantly underperformed German bonds. The five year spread is now 379bp, having widened 140bp in the last week and 40bp since Monday night’s close. Italian government bonds and liquid bank stocks have been aggressively shorted and as a consequence covered bonds have been severely hit.

Crédit Mutuel CIC tapped the market for the second time this week on Friday, and Hungarian issuer OTP Mortgage Bank mandated banks for its first benchmark transaction in three years. Despite renewed volatility in the periphery, syndicate officials said the covered bond market could remain open for core issuance, given strong non-farm payroll data, and a conducive yield environment.

After mandating leads for a Eu1bn 10 year public sector backed Pfandbrief on Tuesday, Bayerische Landesbank said on Wednesday that it had decided to postpone the transaction because of an announcement by Moody’s on Monday that the bank would remain under review for downgrade.

The primary market has been dominated by core supply particularly weighted towards the long end, but a real test of tier two bank issuance, or tier one names from peripheral jurisdictions, has yet to be seen. The timing could be about right for UK, Spanish and Italian deals to enter the market.

Finland’s OP Mortgage Bank came to market on Friday with the first seven year Scandinavian covered bond of the year, pricing a no-grow Eu1bn trade. Despite the bank’s prime Scandinavian collateral, the transaction fell just short of Eu1bn of orders.