Euro

Bank investors of Norwegian and Swedish covered bonds will be obliged to hold more capital against their investments from next week. Though this is likely to have implications for a considerable number of noteholders, the absolute change is small and is unlikely to affect demand, said analysts at Danske Bank research.

The covered bond market reacted stoically to the surprising outcome of the UK’s referendum to leave the European Union with the primary market expected to restart in two weeks.

Capital markets people thought Brexit would not happen because the UK electorate always chooses the sensible option in the end. But it hasn’t.

The UK may have knocked the eurozone periphery off a cliff as it stumbled on its way out of the European Union on Friday morning. Government bond spreads on Friday echoed those during the eurozone sovereign debt crisis. The gap between Germany and the periphery has opened up like the chasm that has developed between UK voters and the political establishment.

Capital markets have been hit by a cataclysm, the worst political shock since 11 September 2001 — though the immediate effects on financial markets may not be as grave as those of the 2008 financial crisis, because the solvency of banks is not in question.

Investors have agreed to a number of changes to Nationwide Building Society’s covered bond programme. The publication of voting results in full is in line with the European Central Bank’s recommendation — but something that is still rarely seen in the market.

The deadline for submitting bids for the European Central Bank’s targeted long term refinancing operations (TLTRO II) is due at the same time as the UK EU referendum result. SEB analysts anticipate borrowing will be higher than the median forecast and think this will help alleviate potential Brexit related spread widening.

Compagnie de Financement Foncier (CFF) has updated its EMTN Obligations Foncières programme documentation to permit issuance of soft bullet covered bonds, bringing its deals into line with most others. The move comes as Germany considers updating its law to allow for soft bullet extensions.

From a regulatory standpoint the spread level of UK covered bonds suggests a UK exit from the European Union has been priced in. However, given uncertainty over how the process of leaving the Union would be finally completed, it is likely UK bonds will remain unloved.

When the covered bond purchase programme (CBPP3) began in October 2014, valuations had become severely overstretched, and not long after the purchasing began, the market came under considerable pressure. Valuations are once again looking overstretched across the board but more so in the corporate sector where eurosystem buying has also only just begun.

Peripheral covered bond spreads were marked tighter on little volume on Monday, in line with a general improvement in risk appetite across the credit spectrum after a number of polls showed a swing in favour of the UK remaining in the European Union. But with opinion more evenly balanced than ever, the market has probably overreacted.

PKO Bank Hipoteczny, Poland’s largest mortgage lender, has issued its second covered bond since the country’s updated legal framework came into force. The well oversubscribed, tightly priced and broadly distributed deal sets a strong prelude for an expected inaugural euro benchmark later this year.