Currencies

The French bank opened books for an eight year benchmark on Tuesday. The initial double digit spread looked generous and ensured the first covered bond to be issued in December got off to a strong start.

Markets have been readying for the renminbi’s inclusion in the SDR basket for months, but now that we have the detail what do the experts think? GlobalRMB wraps up the most noteworthy of the market reaction, on- and offshore.

The renminbi may have got the go head to join the list of currencies backing IMF’s Special Drawing Rights basket, but the change will not actually go live until October 16. Although the IMF has said the delay is merely due to operational reason, questions are being asked about whether other factors are at play.

In a widely anticipated move, the IMF executive board has approved the renminbi as the fifth currency in the Special Drawing Rights (SDR) basket of currencies with a weighting of 10.92%, the IMF said in a November 30 statement. The new SDR will go into effect as of October 1, 2016.

Gross covered bond supply is expected to reach €185bn globally next year, up about €10bn from 2015 and the highest since 2011, according to analysts at Barclays.

The French covered bond issuer has mandated leads for its second deal of the year and is expected to open books on Tuesday.

Offshore renminbi funding costs have increased 100bp-150bp in recent weeks after China’s central bank shut down cross-border lending. The move was designed to reduce volatility in offshore renminbi (CNH) ahead of the IMF decision on its Special Drawing Rights basket, several offshore traders have said to GlobalRMB.

While it’s a now presumed the renminbi will make it into the IMF’s Special Drawing Rights (SDR) basket, one thing still up for debate is the size of inflows into the currency. GlobalRMB rounds up some of the predictions in the market.

Chinese authorities are expected to allow the renminbi to depreciate following the decision on the IMF Special Drawing Rights (SDR) basket, though there is a debate about how severe that fall will be. Either way, it is likely a hike in rates by the Federal Reserves (Fed) could hold more sway on the RMB's future than SDR inclusion.

House prices have fallen in Singapore in the last two years, but covered bond ratings are highly resilient and have been stressed to price declines many times greater than the price falls seen, said Fitch. Bankers note that Singapore’s property price decline has been deliberately engineered and say it is one of the most regulated markets in the world.

The German government is considering new rules that would govern the regulation of loans for construction and residential properties. Though it is not clear whether the rules will become adopted, analysts at LBBW research say that if they are, they should lead to an improvement in the credit quality of Pfandbriefe.

Swedbank priced the tightest fixed rate senior bond in several months this week, but bail-in uncertainty continues to undermine asset class. Bankers are split on whether issuers can be drawn away from covered bonds, which gave almost free funding for SEB Germany on Tuesday.